New economies
Trends: from the world to the portfolio
A trend is not an investment. It is only the beginning of a hypothesis.
Decision system
First structure, then opportunity, then the wider world.
First we check whether you have structure. Then we practice how to evaluate opportunities. Then we widen the lens toward new economies.
Editorial map
Trends to observe, not chase.
Each card summarizes what to review before turning a narrative into an educational hypothesis. The order is editorial, not a ranking of attractiveness.
From trend to hypothesis
The story needs structure before entering the portfolio.
A useful hypothesis does not only explain why something might work. It also says how it could fail.
01
Describe the real change.
02
Identify who captures value.
03
Look for the vehicle, not only the story.
04
Review valuation, competition and regulation.
05
Define the role: core, satellite, bet or observation.
06
Write what would have to happen for you to be wrong.
A trend can be real and still be a poor investment.
A trend can be real and still be a poor investment.
The reality of change does not solve price, vehicle, horizon or concentration risk by itself.
It may be expensive.
It may lack a clear vehicle.
It may benefit private companies more than public ones.
It may already be priced in.
It may require more horizon or risk than the user has.
It may be a strong narrative but a poor entry.
It may concentrate the portfolio too much.
Possible sources
Sources to observe, not copy.
These sources can feed curiosity and context. This first version does not use APIs, scraping or automation.
Trend Hunter
Consumer and innovation patterns. Credit ideas or reports when used.
Google Trends
A signal of attention or interest, not a return predictor.
DataRoma / superinvestors
Observation of known portfolios, not something to copy.
13F / institutional holdings
Delayed information with biases and limitations.
Sector reports
McKinsey, BCG, Bain, Deloitte and PwC for industry context.
Market reports
BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley for institutional reads.
CB Insights, Crunchbase, PitchBook
Useful with access for private-company and funding context.
FRED, World Bank, IMF, OECD, IEA, Our World in Data
Macro, energy, demographic and productivity data.
If a concrete idea is based on a specific source, add a credit note.