Trends
Critical materials
Electrification and technology depend on concentrated mining, refining and recycling supply chains.
Phase: ScaleEvidence: StrongEditorial review:
What is changing
Supply security matters alongside the volume of mineral demand.
Evidence
The IEA examines demand, investment and supply concentration in minerals relevant to energy and technology.
IEA · Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 →Limits of the evidence: Growing structural demand can coexist with oversupply and falling prices.
Value chain
Exploration, mining, refining, processing, manufacturing, recovery and recycling.
Who could capture value
Value capture depends on production costs, resource quality, permits and the position within refining.
Disclosed capital
13F · Q2 2026 · positions as of 30 June · delayed data
No company links have been verified for this trend within the observed universe. This does not imply a lack of exposure.
Explore disclosed capital →Vehicles to observe
Educational examples, not recommendations. Review holdings, costs, concentration and availability before studying a vehicle.
Exposure depends on the link in the value chain. A specific vehicle has not yet been verified for this profile.
Argument in favor
Diversifying supply could sustain investment in capacity and recycling.
Argument against
New projects, technological substitution or weaker demand can pressure prices and margins.
What would invalidate the hypothesis
The hypothesis fails if supply grows faster, a substitute emerges or costs prevent profitable production.
Risks
- Regulation
- Competition
- Timelines and cycle
- Liquidity