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Weekly Report

A closing read to organize regime, ETFs, sectors, volatility, flows, levels and seasonality.
Market report archiveWeekly reading

Weekly Report

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Closing read

Lectura compuesta de volatilidad, rotación y flujos. Current weighting: sector rotation 45%, VIX 40%, and BTC ETF flows 15%.

Generated

2026-08-01

Data through

2026-08-01

Week

2026 · Week 31

Regime

Risk-on selectivo

Score

70/100

Confidence

66%

01

Executive summary

What helped

Rotation: Sectores growth/cíclicos lideran y defensivos quedan rezagados.

Volatility: Normal alto: presión de volatilidad contenida.

BTC ETF flows: inflows sostenidas favorecen apetito por riesgo cripto/institucional.

What weighed

Sector dispersion: 1W dispersion of 10.3%; lowers confidence in the regime.

Volatility: Normal alto: watch zone.

What to watch

VIX curve: Strong contango

BTC ETF flows: inflows sostenidas

La lectura sugiere una rotación cíclica. It does not imply future market direction.

02

The 4 ETFs

SPY

SPDR S&P 500 ETF

+1.1%

Above long average

Long average: +7.1%

Distance to highs: -1.4%

QQQ

Invesco QQQ Trust

+0.9%

Above long average

Long average: +6.9%

Distance to highs: -7.7%

DIA

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF

+0.6%

Above long average

Long average: +7.5%

Distance to highs: -1.1%

IWM

iShares Russell 2000 ETF

-0.6%

Above long average

Long average: +9.9%

Distance to highs: -3.1%

03

Sectors

Leaders

XLY · Consumer Discretionary: +6.1%

XLC · Communication Services: +1.8%

XLF · Financials: +1.1%

Laggards

XLU · Utilities: -4.2%

XLRE · Real Estate: -1.9%

XLB · Materials: -1.6%

Rotation read

La lectura sugiere una rotación cíclica. It does not imply future market direction.

1W dispersion: +10.3%

04

Volatility

VIX spot

17.8

VIX momentum

Stable

VIX curve

Strong contango

M1/M2

6.3%

Longer contracts trade above the near-term contract. This is a common structure in calmer volatility regimes. Es una estructura habitual en entornos de volatilidad más ordenada.

05

Flows

BTC ETF latest day

+330 M USD

BTC ETF 5D

-262 M USD

Streak

Racha de inflows

Read

inflows sostenidas

La ventana reciente muestra demanda neta positiva; not enough history para 20D.

06

Statistical levels

SPY

SPDR S&P 500 ETF

Percentile 48.3

Z-score 0.28

Long average +7.1%

Relative position versus its own history.

48.3
050100

RSP

Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF

Percentile 85.5

Z-score 0.93

Long average +8.4%

Relative position versus its own history.

85.5
050100

IWM

iShares Russell 2000 ETF

Percentile 75.2

Z-score 0.80

Long average +9.9%

Relative position versus its own history.

75.2
050100

USO

United States Oil Fund

Percentile 90.4

Z-score 1.36

Long average +28.9%

Relative position versus its own history.

90.4
050100

UUP

Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund

Percentile 56.8

Z-score 0.13

Long average +2.4%

Relative position versus its own history.

56.8
050100

GLD

SPDR Gold Shares

Percentile 1.6

Z-score -1.88

Long average -9.8%

Relative position versus its own history.

1.6
050100

EWJ

iShares MSCI Japan ETF

Percentile 58.8

Z-score 0.35

Long average +7.0%

Relative position versus its own history.

58.8
050100

FXI

iShares China Large-Cap ETF

Percentile 44.6

Z-score -0.23

Long average -1.2%

Relative position versus its own history.

44.6
050100

SMH

VanEck Semiconductor ETF

Percentile 63.3

Z-score 0.34

Long average +20.1%

Relative position versus its own history.

63.3
050100

BTCUSD

Bitcoin spot

Percentile 19.3

Z-score -0.92

Long average -11.7%

Relative position versus its own history.

19.3
050100

ETHUSD

Ethereum spot

Percentile 40.2

Z-score -0.48

Long average -11.4%

Relative position versus its own history.

40.2
050100

XLK

Technology Select Sector SPDR

Percentile 64.9

Z-score 0.51

Long average +13.1%

Relative position versus its own history.

64.9
050100

XLF

Financial Select Sector SPDR

Percentile 70.2

Z-score 0.59

Long average +8.5%

Relative position versus its own history.

70.2
050100

XLV

Health Care Select Sector SPDR

Percentile 82.7

Z-score 1.05

Long average +7.4%

Relative position versus its own history.

82.7
050100

XLE

Energy Select Sector SPDR

Percentile 83.9

Z-score 0.88

Long average +14.4%

Relative position versus its own history.

83.9
050100

XLY

Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR

Percentile 29.9

Z-score -0.34

Long average -0.5%

Relative position versus its own history.

29.9
050100

XLP

Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR

Percentile 72.4

Z-score 0.56

Long average +4.4%

Relative position versus its own history.

72.4
050100

XLI

Industrial Select Sector SPDR

Percentile 54.6

Z-score 0.35

Long average +8.0%

Relative position versus its own history.

54.6
050100

XLB

Materials Select Sector SPDR

Percentile 53.2

Z-score 0.21

Long average +3.7%

Relative position versus its own history.

53.2
050100

XLU

Utilities Select Sector SPDR

Percentile 29.1

Z-score -0.57

Long average -0.1%

Relative position versus its own history.

29.1
050100

XLRE

Real Estate Select Sector SPDR

Percentile 82.9

Z-score 0.93

Long average +7.1%

Relative position versus its own history.

82.9
050100

XLC

Communication Services Select Sector SPDR

Percentile 18.0

Z-score -0.88

Long average -4.9%

Relative position versus its own history.

18.0
050100

07

Seasonality

August · Year 2 · Midterm

Only rankings with at least 5 observations are shown. The read helps locate historical patterns without overstating a single day.

Limited presidential-cycle sample: expand the read with care.

Cumulative seasonal path

Historical cumulative path for the selected period. It does not predict the next move.

-1.2%+0.4%+2.0%01631Today

Best historical days

6Win rate 100%+0.7%N 6
13Win rate 67%+0.5%N 6
8Win rate 38%+0.5%N 8

Weak historical days

5Win rate 43%-0.6%N 7
2Win rate 25%-0.6%N 8
1Win rate 13%-0.6%N 8

Best cycle days

Not enough observations to highlight days.

Weak cycle days

Not enough observations to highlight days.

08 · Radar

Cross-readings

Curated summary of tensions worth keeping on screen without turning the report into a long table.

Manual update

Reviewed tickers

4

Initial view

3 highlights

Use

Context

SPY

Broad market reference; contextual reading, not an execution signal.

QQQ

Starting point to observe thematic concentration and delayed institutional exposure.

IBIT

Partial exposure read through a spot Bitcoin ETF; it does not imply price direction.

09

Final read

Context

The regime sets the weekly tone and helps organize volatility, rotation and flows into one read.

Risk

The priority is to protect margin for error when several readings start losing alignment.

Process

Maintaining process means returning to the map: regime, levels, flows and seasonality before expanding the read.