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Weekly Report

A closing read to organize regime, ETFs, sectors, volatility, flows, levels and seasonality.

Market report archiveWeekly reading

Weekly Report

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Closing read

Composite read of volatility, rotation, and flows. Current weighting: sector rotation 45%, VIX 40%, and BTC ETF flows 15%.

Generated

2026-09-08

Data through

2026-09-08

Week

2026 · Week 37

Regime

Neutral / mixed

Score

60/100

Confidence

74%

Executive summary

What helped

Rotation: Growth/cyclical sectors lead while defensives lag.

Rotation: Mixed rotation; no extreme defensive reading dominates.

Volatility: Low-normal: contained volatility pressure.

What weighed

Sector dispersion: 1W dispersion of 6.4%; lowers confidence in the regime.

BTC ETF flows: outflow pressure aumenta la cautela en exposición vía ETFs.

What to watch

VIX curve: Strong contango

BTC ETF flows: outflow pressure

The reading suggests mixed rotation. It does not imply future market direction.

The 4 ETFs

SPY

SPDR S&P 500 ETF

+0.4%

Above long average

Long average: +8.5%

Distance to highs: -1.0%

QQQ

Invesco QQQ Trust

+0.3%

Above long average

Long average: +9.5%

Distance to highs: -3.5%

DIA

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF

+0.5%

Above long average

Long average: +7.6%

Distance to highs: -1.5%

IWM

iShares Russell 2000 ETF

+0.7%

Above long average

Long average: +8.8%

Distance to highs: -3.0%

Sectors

Leaders

XLC · Communication Services: +2.7%

XLE · Energy: +0.7%

XLP · Consumer Staples / defensive: -0.2%

Laggards

XLB · Materials: -3.7%

XLI · Industrials: -3.0%

XLU · Utilities: -2.9%

Rotation read

The reading suggests mixed rotation. It does not imply future market direction.

1W dispersion: +6.4%

Volatility

VIX · last close

15.8

VIX momentum

Rising

VIX curve

Strong contango

M1/M2

9.8%

More distant expirations trade above the near contract. This is a common structure in calmer volatility regimes.

Flows

BTC ETF latest day

0 M USD

BTC ETF 5D

-409 M USD

Streak

No clear streak

Read

outflow pressure

The recent window shows a net reduction in exposure; there is not enough history for the 20D reading.

Statistical levels

SPY

SPDR S&P 500 ETF

Percentile 58.2

Z-score 0.44

Long average +8.5%

Relative position versus its own history.

58.2

050100

RSP

Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF

Percentile 80.7

Z-score 0.82

Long average +8.1%

Relative position versus its own history.

80.7

050100

IWM

iShares Russell 2000 ETF

Percentile 68.6

Z-score 0.62

Long average +8.8%

Relative position versus its own history.

68.6

050100

USO

United States Oil Fund

Percentile 92.6

Z-score 1.59

Long average +32.1%

Relative position versus its own history.

92.6

050100

UUP

Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund

Percentile 48.2

Z-score -0.07

Long average +1.7%

Relative position versus its own history.

48.2

050100

GLD

SPDR Gold Shares

Percentile 15.6

Z-score -1.08

Long average -2.1%

Relative position versus its own history.

15.6

050100

EWJ

iShares MSCI Japan ETF

Percentile 83.1

Z-score 0.86

Long average +11.2%

Relative position versus its own history.

83.1

050100

FXI

iShares China Large-Cap ETF

Percentile 43.2

Z-score -0.30

Long average -1.6%

Relative position versus its own history.

43.2

050100

SMH

VanEck Semiconductor ETF

Percentile 58.4

Z-score 0.24

Long average +18.8%

Relative position versus its own history.

58.4

050100

BTCUSD

Bitcoin spot

Percentile 58.6

Z-score 0.14

Long average +13.3%

Relative position versus its own history.

58.6

050100

ETHUSD

Ethereum spot

Percentile 75.6

Z-score 0.64

Long average +22.0%

Relative position versus its own history.

75.6

050100

XLK

Technology Select Sector SPDR

Percentile 81.2

Z-score 0.83

Long average +17.0%

Relative position versus its own history.

81.2

050100

XLF

Financial Select Sector SPDR

Percentile 71.0

Z-score 0.65

Long average +9.2%

Relative position versus its own history.

71.0

050100

XLV

Health Care Select Sector SPDR

Percentile 95.0

Z-score 1.65

Long average +10.9%

Relative position versus its own history.

95.0

050100

XLE

Energy Select Sector SPDR

Percentile 89.5

Z-score 1.46

Long average +17.8%

Relative position versus its own history.

89.5

050100

XLY

Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR

Percentile 24.8

Z-score -0.53

Long average -1.5%

Relative position versus its own history.

24.8

050100

XLP

Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR

Percentile 51.6

Z-score 0.04

Long average +2.3%

Relative position versus its own history.

51.6

050100

XLI

Industrial Select Sector SPDR

Percentile 21.6

Z-score -0.53

Long average +3.0%

Relative position versus its own history.

21.6

050100

XLB

Materials Select Sector SPDR

Percentile 63.3

Z-score 0.42

Long average +5.3%

Relative position versus its own history.

63.3

050100

XLU

Utilities Select Sector SPDR

Percentile 17.7

Z-score -0.95

Long average -2.7%

Relative position versus its own history.

17.7

050100

XLRE

Real Estate Select Sector SPDR

Percentile 61.2

Z-score 0.31

Long average +3.0%

Relative position versus its own history.

61.2

050100

XLC

Communication Services Select Sector SPDR

Percentile 20.8

Z-score -0.65

Long average -1.4%

Relative position versus its own history.

20.8

050100

Seasonality

September · Year 2 · Midterm

Only rankings with at least 5 observations are shown. The read helps locate historical patterns without overstating a single day.

Limited presidential-cycle sample: expand the read with care.

Cumulative seasonal path

Historical cumulative path for the selected period. It does not predict the next move.

Best historical days

11Win rate 100%+0.7%N 7

12Win rate 75%+0.4%N 8

28Win rate 86%+0.4%N 7

Weak historical days

3Win rate 33%-0.8%N 6

21Win rate 14%-0.5%N 7

13Win rate 63%-0.5%N 8

Best cycle days

Not enough observations to highlight days.

Weak cycle days

Not enough observations to highlight days.

08 · Radar

Cross-readings

Curated summary of tensions worth keeping on screen without turning the report into a long table.

Manual update

Reviewed tickers

Initial view

3 highlights

Use

Context

SPY

Broad market reference; contextual reading, not an execution signal.

QQQ

Starting point to observe thematic concentration and delayed institutional exposure.

IBIT

Partial exposure read through a spot Bitcoin ETF; it does not imply price direction.

Final read

Context

The regime sets the weekly tone and helps organize volatility, rotation and flows into one read.

Risk

The priority is to protect margin for error when several readings start losing alignment.

Process

Maintaining process means returning to the map: regime, levels, flows and seasonality before expanding the read.